[kyrra]

Only if the power charging the battery is cleaner than petroleum based fuels. If we had nuclear everywhere, I'd totally agree with you. But if you in get your power from coal power plants, you will cause more emissions charging an electric car compared to petrol car.

You're also assuming the electric grids around the world can handle this increase in load.

[toomuchtodo]

False. A petrol car burns petrol it’s entire life. An EV is already cleaner burning coal than a petrol vehicle, and the electric grid will only get cleaner over time. You can Google “well to wheel efficiency” to confirm.

With regards to charging infra, yes, I assume at the current global production rate of ~2 million EVs/year built and sold, the electric grid can absorb these new distributed loads (which are roughly the same draw as a large central heat pump, 20-40amps). There are already systems to orchestrate vehicle charging when there is excess clean energy on a local grid (“DER”). Tesla supports this today with a Scandinavian utility, no different then your Nest thermostat shedding AC load during peak power demand but the inverse.

Below is a list of jurisdictions banning new fossil fuel vehicle sales and when the bans go into effect. Everyone has plenty of notice to prepare.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

[kyrra]

Many people will be charging their vehicles in the evening after being out for the day. In the US, this time of day is already a large power draw just as solar power starts to wane for the day. If the cars delays charging until after this peak, solar and wind won't be as prevalent either.

Your heat pump comment makes my point for me. This is additional draw on top of what homes already draw today. Yes, it's just a 20-50amp draw, but this is a new draw and will be there year around, along when a heat pump may also be running.

And while you point out that there is regulation around the sale of electric vehicles, is there regulation around the production of clean energy? What to expect to happen with Russia cutting off natural gas, and the US slowing down or stopping the permitting of new drilling locations of natural gas. Where do you expect all of the energy to charge these electric vehicles to come from as the world seems to push back against fossil fuels for powering our grid. World leaders are still hesitant about nuclear. But they're also fighting fossil fuels at the same time. Solar, wind, and hydro will not be enough to cover this increase demand plus normal growth.

[antisinguIarity]

>An EV is already cleaner burning coal than a petrol vehicle

That is a patently ridiculous claim.

The most efficient coal power stations approach 50% thermal efficiency. Near 15% of that is lost in power line transmission, and another 15% or so in EV charging cycle losses.

Modern diesels approach 40% thermal efficiency.

Also, this completely ignores one of the main benefits of EVs - that is, externalising emissions and pollution away from the point of use.

[toomuchtodo]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/electric-...

> Electric Cars Are Cleaner Even When Powered by Coal

> Emissions from EVs 40% lower than gasoline cars, BNEF says Researcher expects difference to grow as clean energy expands

> That’s the conclusion of research by BloombergNEF, which found carbon dioxide emissions from battery-powered vehicles were about 40 percent lower than for internal combustion engines last year.

https://thedriven.io/2019/12/09/are-evs-cleaner-than-ice-coa...

https://cgscholar.com/bookstore/works/the-climate-change-mit...

[antisinguIarity]

The article you linked makes my point:

"an average ICE vehicle will emit around 69 metric tonnes in its lifetime.

But an EV, in a state like Wyoming which is almost completely powered by coal, will only produce 66 metric tonnes if the vehicle is made by a manufacturer using a grid that is 13% renewables (the US national average)."

My back-of-the-envelope maths shows that fuelling an EV from a coal power source results in about the same thermal efficiency, and thus about the same CO2 emissions, as a modern diesel. Those published numbers show the same thing. I thought saving the planet required truly drastic reductions in CO2 output?