[electric_muse]

Great points! Thanks for hopping in and adding extra color.

Navigating a whole portfolio through a flat/down environment sounds incredibly stressful.

If the driver of these changing environments is predominantly investor perception, public early warnings seem like they would accelerate or exacerbate them.

For example, if you publicly announce you’re expecting flat or down rounds (and similarly lowering your offers on new deals), it’s almost like applying downwards price fixing pressure. The next investor in your businesses feels they can also offer less without losing the deal. In this way, the warning manifests the crisis.

To protect the portfolio valuations, it would then seem strategic to prepare and react in private. But public warnings seem more strategic towards lowering valuations of new deals.

That’s why I’m naturally skeptical about the motivation for signaling.