[skybrian]

I'm not sure what you mean by "recreating the frontier?" Are you talking about cities, suburbs, or rural areas?

Changing property tax rates doesn't change cities or suburbs into something else, at least not at first. All the property is still owned by the same people. People still live in the same houses.

[brightly-salty]

Perhaps I'm explaining it poorly, that's entirely possible. The frontier is where land value is zero, at the margin of production. It is possible to get value out of the land, but only with hard work. Currently this land may be held without using it for production, but it largely doesn't exist. This is because the lack of a land value tax incentivizes landholders to own all land for the purpose of speculation rather than production, even if it's economic rent value is low. With a land value tax, people who hold land purely for speculative sales prices would sell it because the sales price would drop to zero, therefore freeing up those pieces of land for families to move to and work upon. The frontier, the margin of production, where only hard work would make the land valuable, reopens and other land also becomes more mobile because there is a disincentive to holding land for speculative purposes, reducing the price of housing in general and contributing to housing liquidity.

[skybrian]

It seems like the idea is to increase property taxes so much that the land value is zero. However, the tax isn't zero. You are effectively paying rent, but to the government. In desirable areas like cities, the rent on the land may be quite high, because the land is desirable.

A Manhattan where the property owners pay huge taxes to the government (because that's what it would take the drive the land value to zero) would still be an extremely expensive place to own property. This might be a good way for the government to raise revenue, but it's not really a "cheap land" situation. It's one where the government is effectively the landlord and everyone pays high "rents" to the government.

It's plausible that such a scheme would lower the cost of living in some places when it's due to speculation, by popping the bubble. But it doesn't lower the cost of living when it's due to the fundamental value of owning property there.

[brightly-salty]

Yes, I agree with you on what will happen in big cities where the land value is already high. The idea is more that in the Montana's and the Kansas's - where they already give land away free to people who promise to build improvements - there will be even more of an economic incentive to move to underdeveloped states, giving more families economic opportunities, which will then cause network effects as more families move out, causing housing prices to fall in the big cities. Housing prices will become more equal across the nation, and vertical development will be incentivized over urban sprawl.

[skybrian]

If people move out of bigger cities to rural areas, why isn't that increasing sprawl? (That is, there is more low-density development in those places.)

To some extent this already happening. Many people moved out of the city during the pandemic. The people in desirable rural areas aren't necessarily happy about it. They are often upset about all the outsiders with more money moving in.

They probably wouldn't be very happy with their property taxes going up either? When there's increased demand for land in a certain town from newcomers, there should be higher land taxes for everyone according to Georgist theory, to keep the price of land zero.

[snidane]

Urban sprawl is an expansion of a single city as the land in its center rises. It applies to both small and large cities and it doesn't mean people moving from a larger city to a smaller one, unless the smaller city's area overlaps with commuting radius of the bigger city.

Under a georgist system there is no such thing as real estate speculation. Real estate there doesn't cost multiples of peoples' net worth and increase of land tax rate is hardly noticed because the base value of land is a number hovering close to zero. Price for land and tax rate in that system is just an allocation mechanism of geographical area to the most productive use, preventing hoarding. In other assets where hoarding is risky, since inventory can expire (groceries) or go bust (stocks, bonds), speculation by holding inventory is valuable because it provides liquidity to other market participants. Speculation in land is pointless The land is always there and will not run away. The speculators are just pocketing private taxes that otherwise government could've collected and reallocated elsewhere.

[skybrian]

Seems like if the increase in the tax rate is hardly noticeable then it isn't going to lower land prices very much? You'd need a hefty tax to make desirable locations not worth spending money on.

[bombcar]

The theory goes that as those new rural communities develop the land value will begin to increase - which will in turn encourage densification to keep up.

We see this historically in frontier towns that had absolutely no limits on sprawl (as land on the outskirts was available to anyone willing to stead it) but still had city centers develop and usually to the construction limits of the time.

[skybrian]

"Encourage densification" is kind of bloodless, abstract language.

How does this mechanism work in concrete terms? My understanding is that Georgism advocates raising taxes on people with property in desirable locations. They decide they can't afford the taxes, so they sell to a developer, who tears down the house and builds a bigger building.

Another name for this process is "gentrification."

The difference is that with the way gentrification works currently, the developer pays the previous property owner lots of money, which isn't so bad. With Georgism, the previous property owner doesn't get anything, because the property tax is so high that the land isn't worth anything. It's similar to being a tenant in a rapidly gentrifying area where rents go up but there's no upside for you.

I guess if you're pro-density and don't own property, that might seem appealing, but this mechanism seems likely to be very unappealing to home owners.

[imtringued]

I am always confused when the idea is that the price of land should be 0. Yes I agree it should be low but let's be pragmatic. It would be enough if the land price is a fraction of a yearly salary. Say $20000.

[pydry]

It doesnt really make sense from a moral or economic perspective to have it be owned it's purely about tradition and the implicit threat of violence.

A tradition that arbitrarily prints free money for some and arbitrarily imbues economic burden on others.

The electromagnetic spectrum is sort of like land from an economic perspective except it "appeared" only recently. Nobody owns that or puts a price on it. Everybody purchases a limited lease from the government via auction. This was, in a sense, a frontier.

The Duke of Westminster didnt inherit electromagnetic spectrum from his ancestors coz they won a war in 1066.

[skybrian]

Georgism isn't different. It relies on an implicit threat of force, too, since it's all about property taxes. Not paying your property tax (which some people might not be able to afford in places where it goes up a lot) would likely have similar effects as eviction or foreclosure. Otherwise, why pay the tax?