| If you want not to be gullible to any parties, stick to the facts. Before Putin's so-called "demands":
1/ EU companies paid energy in euro or dollar to Russian banks NOT under sanctions
2/ Russia sent the energy. After: the same, except that the EU companies must use a specific Russian bank, so that Putin can pretend to be paid in rubles. It is just a show, since the EU companies still pay in euro or dollar. That changes nothing in practice. It does enable Putin tough to underline that the EU sanctions make a huge exception for energy. Well, OK, but everybody at a certain level of power already knew it. Maybe the public opinions in the EU had not yet clearly understood that the EU pays $1B per say to Russia in winter for energy, despite proclaiming "huge sanctions". But now the pressure of the public opinions to get rid of the EU dependency to Russia is super high. And they feel guilty towards Ukraine, so they want more weapons and ammunition delivered to Ukraine. So once again, Putin miscalculated: Germany was reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons and now they are sending modern tanks, heavy artillery etc. That u-turn happened within 2 days of Putin's demands. Yes, Putin can provoke an economic recession in the EU by blocking pipelines but then he will miss that money. He had prevented that problem by putting aside $600B ... but almost all of it is now blocked by sanctions. The EU has had recessions before. It just did because of Covid and decided to inject €750B of magic money: the EU Central just created that money. But that money is labelled in euros. Its value has not plunged despite this huge artificial input of money, because the EU is a safe bet in the middle term (10 to 20 years). So the EU can inject again hundreds of billions so that the recession will be limited - if not totally reversed. This would fuel the inflation though, which would pose social issues. Social compensations can be put in place. Well, there will be a price, but nothing like we had in 2008 or even Covid. Putin can not print money like the EU. Well, he can print as many rubles that he wants except that... nobody wants to be paid in rubles. The ruble value is keeping up because it is artificially maintained (super high interest rates + strict limitation of use of hard currencies by Russian entities). If Putin stops the pipelines, within months Russia would have no hard foreign currencies left. It will need to buy them in rubles. At the value that the global markets will decide. Which will be a fraction of its current value. A large inflation will ensue. In the end, China will - or not - help Putin. Because the "West" has very deep pockets and a huge credibility on markets. The current alliance supporting Putin amounts to 600M persons living in advanced economies against the 145M Russians and their second league economy and an untrusted currency. But being help by China will have a huge price. Russia will become partially vassal to China. Putin needs to win its war fast. The more it lasts, the more the sanctions will show their effects. The EU will find substitute to the Russian energy faster than Russia will be able to deliver its energy to new clients all being equal. But things are not equal: the "West" is rich enough to pay its energy at an expensive price. Putin will have to meet the global markets' prices, e.g the price all included: production + transportation. It means that Putin will need to give large discounts. Hence the low price paid by India recently. So there are two simultaneous races going on: 1/ Who will get out first of the mutual energy entanglement? At what cost? 2/ Will Russia be able to end the war quickly before a huge amounts of weapons of all kind are sent to Ukraine? Be to end a war, Putin needs either complete victory (which is quite doubtful) or a partial victory (big enough so that Ukraine will agree to a peace treaty). Predicting how a war will unfold is just impossible. The most probable issues are either:
- a Russian defeat: the public opinion evolves against the regime, because of the economic recession and the casualties. And/or the morale of the Russian soldiers keeps going down.
- in the coming weeks or months the front line will stabilize, with strong positions on both sides. This is said by many military experts as the most probable, especially if China provides ammunition and weapons. In both cases, Putin's regime will fall in the following years. Economic crisis, lost of legitimacy since the glorious Red Army (which was indeed glorious during WWII) would have been defeated or in stalemate), shame of being vassalized by China instead of being the glorious Imperial Russia. Therefore social unrest => repression => more social unrest etc and then Putin escape to China. Or the regime becomes totalitarian, like North Korea. In the end, the only problem for the West is political: keep the alliances united (EU, NATO) + limit the economic consequences whatever they come from.
=> one can fairly say that the EU and NATO will be put to test. Are the peoples in those countries committed enough to democracy to pay the price of supporting Ukraine.
=> there will be tensions but I think it will unite the EU more than ever. Because it give the EU a very profound meaning: an alliance of democracies against tyranny. Hungary will have to choose. Poland too, but at a later stage. For Putin, only a victory can preserve his power. Otherwise, he will have to turn Russia into North Korean. If he can, which is doubtful. I can't see the Russian people going back to the Soviet era. Putin knows that perfectly. Hence all his pretending of using nuclear bombs etc, which is nonsensical: if defeated in Ukraine, what's the point of a mutual destruction of Europe, the USA and Russia??? He keeps saying "I have nuclear heads, be careful!". So what, we have too. No edge, just another show to scare the public opinions. Like being paid in rubles: just a show. The Russian people needs to get up and fight for its freedom - put Putin out of power. Or be a vassal of China. I can't wait to see Navalny in power. Unthinkable? Well, remember Mandela. Winter has come. |
The only issue I find with your comment is the expectation that there will be mass unrest or protests in Russia. Somehow I don't see this. People in ex-soviet countries are sadly used to accepting the status quo and trying to make the best out of it.
I do hope I'm wrong, though.