[Jack000]

2022: Deepmind releases paper on bootstrapped meta-learning and scaling RL agents

2023: RL agent trained for multi-task learning solves majority of perfect information games. It's a scaled up decision transformer. Scaling laws for RL agents are discovered, similar to language models.

2024: Large scale RL agents are combined with frozen vision and language models via cross-attention, can be prompted one-shot with language/vision tokens to solve novel tasks.

2025: RL agents enter the real world - first pre-trained in diverse synthetic environments, then via imitation learning from youtube videos, and finally in an online fashion via realtime human interaction.

timeline might be optimistic, but one can hope!

[version_five]

I can't wait until my "in person" interactions are with the RL equivalent of a chatbot that doesn't actually understand anything but behaves in a locally "human like" way so that corporate types think it can replace a real person.

I'm interested to see how the field advances, but it won't lead to AGI, it will lead to cool tricks that the ignorant think are sufficient to replace a real person. That will suck

[andreyk]

Check out SayCan from Everyday Robotics / Google Robotics which just came out a few weeks back - RL agents are already entering the real world! BC-Z is promising for that, too.

[gwern]

> Scaling laws for RL agents are discovered, similar to language models.

Still waiting for a followup to https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.03113 ...