[agent008t]

Simply put, house price is a function of rents for similar houses and the multiple of annual rent that houses sell for. The multiple is primarily a function of interest rates, and a significant proportion of house price increases in recent decades has been the increase in multiple. It is also a function of expected future house price growth - the higher the expectation, the higher the multiple, which is where psychology and FOMO comes into play.

The interesting thing about these ingredients that decide the multiple, is that they can turn sharply. If interest rates go up, and multiple starts to contract, at some point the belief that house prices always go up will be shaken, and instead of pricing in future house price growth, people will start pricing in future contraction.

Level of rents is a function of the state of local economy (broad salary levels, more or less) and house supply. Can probably broadly be approximated as GDP growth - so fairly low.

So at interest rates at very low levels and arguable on the way up, and growth expectations seemingly very positive, and economic growth looking shaky, it looks as if house prices may have more downside than upside.

[gbasin]

Housing [land] prices have been grinding higher long before the Great Decline in interest rates

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kYEb

[agent008t]

That chart seems to only go back to 1987, which is after the decline in interest rates started: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y

[gbasin]

Here you go https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-pr...

[eberkund]

According to this, home prices were mostly flat from 1900 up until the 1970s. The proves the opposite of the point you are trying to make.

[gbasin]

This is adjusted for inflation