[whimsicalism]

> - $10 billion to Reality Labs R&D in 2021 expected to increase annually will eat into earnings

Seems like that is a knob that can be changed at any time to give more profit.

> - Last year saw first ever decline in US Facebook user base, expected to continue shrinking (albeit slowly)

Including instagram? Regardless, this was right after the pandemic, some people will switch from screens.

> - Apple’s 2021 opt-in privacy change makes FB/Insta/Messenger/WhatsApp ads less effective permanently for the highest margin demographic (iPhone users)

This will be worked around - the impact isn't as large as people make it out to be.

> - Hugely negative public sentiment* hurts adoption and makes continued litigation headwinds likely

Doesn't seem to really be hurting IG adoption that much. The real risk is litigation.

[WYepQ4dNnG]

> - Apple’s 2021 opt-in privacy change makes FB/Insta/Messenger/WhatsApp ads less effective permanently for the highest margin demographic (iPhone users)

> This will be worked around - the impact isn't as large as people make it out to be.

And you think Apple will stay put and do nothing? You can expect that as soon as they find a work around, Apple is gonna screw them again. They have no chances.

[whimsicalism]

Depends on the work around. I don't think it is possible to get between app tracking data from some side channel, Apple will definitely block that through legal if not technical enforcement.

But they can use data from Android to infer user behavior for Apple users.

Also, they can still use tracking data from their own properties (IG, FB, Whatsapp).

[WYepQ4dNnG]

Less and less people are using FB .. perhaps IG and Whatsapp yes, although you have to consider that privacy regulations can only get more stringent over time.

Will they go bankrupt ? I don't think so. Will they be able to grow at the rate of the last 10y? I don't think so.

I think they peaked already.

[djohnston]

If they grew at the rate of the last 10 years we'd need to make a few extra billion people to use their product.

[ahahahahah]

> Less and less people are using FB

Are we just making things up now? FB users increased over the last quarter and are at an all-time high.

[kd913]

Android is going down the same direction as Apple with the privacy sandbox.

https://blog.google/products/android/introducing-privacy-san...

[whimsicalism]

Yeah but for very different motivations.

Google is doing this because it is like throwing a banana in Mario kart for your competitors to slip on.

[cheriot]

If two apps can both identify a user then they will be able to combine that data. Apple took away the one identifier they controlled. What are they going to do next?

[Evan_Hellmuth]

Agreed on all counts! Except US FB user decline slowing (not instagram, just FB).

Add in WhatsApp’s under-monetization and some bullishness on VR and you’ve got my investment thesis.

[ahahahahah]

US FB DAU increased over the last quarter and US FB MAU is at an all-time high, I don't think there's even a "decline" to be slowing.

[jjfoooo5]

FB user base shrinking, including Instagram. The pandemic rebuttal isn't convincing in the face of continued huge growth of TikTok

[ahahahahah]

Across all apps they have 50million more DAU this quarter. Facebook itself has 31 million more. Under what definition is that "shrinking"?