[ryanwaggoner]

At this point, investing capital in real estate and stock markets is a fool's errand. They're done.

Absolutely ridiculous. When I hear a lot of people spouting nonsense like this, I know it's time to buy. American corporations are making a killing right now; why exactly would I not want to buy a piece of that business? Especially when it's on sale? Similarly, real estate is dirt cheap right now. Have people decided they no longer need housing?

Think what you want, but I'm actually doing it, right now, as are many shrewd investors I know. And I'm doing quite well.

[matwood]

Exactly. Saying that most investing is done is just as bad as people saying real estate will never go down. Generally when everyone feels one way, it's time to act on the opposite.

I'm also actually doing it right now. I own stocks and close on my first house Friday.

Now for a crazy side anecdote. My cousin closed on her first house a few weeks ago. It took her 5 houses to finally get one. The reason? Her other 4 full price offers were rejected because someone else outbid her. Yep, outbid in the down market. It certainly doesn't mean that the market has turned, but it shows the interesting difference between what the news reports is happening, what people think is happening, and then what's really happening.

[scarmig]

Doesn't the fact that my POV is apparently outnumbered 7:1 undermine the idea that everyone is a bear? =)

Instead of subjective measures like what everyone feels, I prefer to focus on things like P/E and Case-Schiller ratios. Though they obviously have their limitations, they tend to suggest that the market is still overvalued relative historical norms. And I see no reason for our economy to prosper in the near- and medium-term.

[hkmurakami]

We can argue whether there are opportunities out there or not (I personally believe that there are), but in this link I see many instances of annual returns far greater than 10%. The writer seems to have an above average understanding of the market (or just got lucky), and presuming that the average Joe (who is the target audience of his blog) can replicate these returns in any given economy sounds rather absurd to me.

Retirement managers typically assumed 8% annual return for portfolios, but in recent years have adjusted this number to 5-6% per annum. The writer's returns are at times more than 3x this number. Generalizing his experience to the wider population is going to be dangerous.

[Confusion]

I agree, though I'm currently saving some money because I expect the markets to go back down to 2008 lows. I'll buy then. Companies like Coca Cola and Shell are as good as ever, but will be much cheaper then.

  Have people decided they no longer need housing?

That may not be an entirely valid comparison, because it seems simply too many houses have been built.