It varies depending on the context of each recession. For the likely upcoming recession, energy/industrial/agriculture/real estate. In other words, hard assets, manufacturing, and commodities.
Any citations or rationale for this?
Real Estate will have to deal with exorbitant valuations and actual interest rates for the first time in a decade.
Agriculture makes sense (people need to eat just as much now as ever and there are some global supply issues which will help producers in certain countries).
Industrial (this is too big to call a sector). Automotive will have a tough time as consumer spending drops and loans start to actually cost money. Semiconductor is a crap shoot (a lot of uncertainty). Aerospace is looking grim, but government support is typically forthcoming.
Energy. The forecast is bright for energy right now, but we are currently in a moment of high inflation, low unemployment and a war involving a large petroleum exporter. If unemployment rises, then energy becomes less promising. Times are good now but not always.
On a historical note, I would add:
Biotech: Development times are long. Products will come online that were developed during the peak. Also startups become more affordable when competing industries flag.
Entertainment: the movie business has historically weathered most recessions pretty well. They can release things that were already made during the fatter years.
Education: Historically this has done well during recessions (people who lose their jobs go back to school). Unclear if this will be as likely at this stage since the prices are not exactly favorable.
If there is a softening in real estate prices, coupled with a slump in securities, those with cash may want to put their money in real estate in the hopes of seeing a good returns when the recession turns around.
Even with rising interest rates, if someone locks in a loan where they can break even with renters, they can sit on the property waiting for the market to recover.
This looks particularly attractive in the scenario where high interest rates combined with a recession creates difficulties for many people to purchase a home, in which case they will rent and be paying off someone else's loan/giving them a return on their invested cash.
Unlike companies, property doesn't go bankrupt. It can devalue, but there is often inherent value in the fact that it can be rented out, so there is decent stability. I guess, though, if there is a major regional shift where the property is located, like a manufacturing plant in the midwest shutting down, there could be a drop in housing prices and rental demand that would be very difficult to recover.
On a historical note, I would add: Biotech: Development times are long. Products will come online that were developed during the peak. Also startups become more affordable when competing industries flag. Entertainment: the movie business has historically weathered most recessions pretty well. They can release things that were already made during the fatter years. Education: Historically this has done well during recessions (people who lose their jobs go back to school). Unclear if this will be as likely at this stage since the prices are not exactly favorable.