[throwaway24124]

Startup creation / funding is closely correlated with near-zero interest rates. When money is cheap, venture capital is more lucrative. This correlates closely with the early 2000s bubble, the 2008 crash that dropped interest rates and allowed for extreme amounts of venture capital, and the 2020-2021 surge in startup investment. Venture capital in theory becomes a far less lucrative choice in a high-inflation, rising interest rate market. While we’ve definitely seen a bit of a pullback in VC funding over the last 6 months, it remains to be seen whether that was another temporary dip like in Feb/March 2020 or a larger shift in the market.

Personally, I think the entire economy has shifted to focus on SaaS revenue growth above all else, and it will be impossible to “pull back” from venture capital because of that inertia, but in theory based on historical trends there should be a pull-back.