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by fredoliveira 5364 days ago
Wouldn't a strategy of investing in good long term stable stocks (for the good times) and shorting ETFs during the busts be solid? It takes timing, a bit of luck, and knowing the markets well enough, but there's probably a ton of people doing it successfully.

(this is more a comment on a possible strategy rather than on what the OP did, I realize)
2 comments
steve8918 5364 days ago
During the dotcom bust and during the 2008 crash, EVERYTHING went down. In stock trading, 80% of it is getting your timing correct. So sure, if you can get the timing down, then you'll make great money, but that's also the hardest part that not even 80+% of money managers get.

I'm not sure there's a ton of people who made money during the bust, especially those that owned mutual funds like what the author claimed. There certainly were people that made money but they are few and far between. One of my coworkers at my current company made $500k shorting 3COM and YHOO.

The point is that the author didn't even show a year of flat stock earnings... every year they went up! During 2 crashes! And he never got burnt enough to start thinking that stock investing was dangerous or foolhardy when he had no steady job. It just seems fishy.

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corin_ 5364 days ago
Remember that this is one guy doing it. It's possible to make great money just by basing your buy/sell decisions on coin tosses. Is it likely that it will work out well every time, hell no. But if a load of people did it, there would be some with great runs. By extension, the fact that many people did terribly doesn't mean that others didn't do great.

And with your "80+% of..." - the 20% left weren't necessarily more skillful, many will have just been luckier.

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brianobush 5364 days ago
No idea why this was downvoted. Maybe because it is right? One data point may not reflect the broad market. If he sold before the crash and then dumped his money back in the market when the dow hit 6500 he would have made a killing.
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TDL 5364 days ago
Not everything went down in either crash. Also, 80% of trading any financial instrument is risk management, position sizing, & dealing w/ losses & gains. Stock selection & timing are a small percentage of trading, they are just easier to sell to the public.

Regards, TDL

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brown9-2 5364 days ago
The difficulty is in identifying "good" long term stable stocks.
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