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by photochemsyn 1521 days ago
I believe the FDA relies on the "maximum expected utility principle" - a cornerstone of free-market economic theory.

> "By combining the concept of utility with the notion of rational decision making, economists in the mid-twentieth century established a basis for the maximum expected utility principle. This principle is a key concept behind the creation of autonomous decision-making agents."

https://algorithmsbook.com/files/dm.pdf

This has been expressed in the past as "Each portion of wealth has a corresponding portion of happiness, and of two individuals with unequal fortunes, he who has the most wealth has the most happiness."

A good way to accumulate wealth and maximize happiness is to sell drugs, and preventing the sale of drugs because of concerns over ill effects reduces wealth and brings sadness to the pharmaceutical corporation and its shareholders and board members; such sadness prevents them from hiring ex-FDA employees as consultants or managers, thus defeating the principle of maximum expected utility.

The autonomous decision-making agents at the FDA therefore have no choice but to rubber stamp everything that comes across their desk. Doing anything else would be irrational.

2 comments

> The autonomous decision-making agents at the FDA therefore have no choice but to rubber stamp everything that comes across their desk. Doing anything else would be irrational.

You have clearly never tried to get a drug or device approved nor have you looked at the number of drugs that fail, expensively, in Phase 2 or even Phase 3. Your statement is utter nonsense.

> I believe the FDA relies on the "maximum expected utility principle" - a cornerstone of free-market economic theory.

This has nothing to do with 'free-market economic theory'. It's about decision under uncertainty. The concept was expressed for the first time by Von Neumann and Morgenstern in a book that was supposed to explain how to play poker.

> "Each portion of wealth has a corresponding portion of happiness, and of two individuals with unequal fortunes, he who has the most wealth has the most happiness."

I have never ever read that anywhere. One could argue that rich people provide more value to society and then should be prioritise in some circumstances but what you are writing seems very unfounded.

You can get that quote from the linked text. Notice I'm not actually attacking 'free-market economic theory' per se - but we could adjust the behavior of FDA regulators and pharmaceutical corporate boards by (1) banning FDA regulators from ever taking jobs or gifts from the entities they're supposed to be regulating and (2) enforcing criminal penalties for fraud and deception in the pharmaceutical sector.

There's nothing like a 5-10 year term in an American prison to reduce happiness...

> You can get that quote from the linked text

True. Utility is increasing with revenue. I misunderstood this part of your comment. I read it as : 'if we want to maximum social utility let's prioritise rich people'.

> I have never ever read that anywhere. One could argue that rich people provide more value to society and then should be prioritise in some circumstances but what you are writing seems very unfounded.

Nor have I. It's such a remarkably stupid statement that it strikes me as stupid in itself to think anyone should be so stupid as to believe it.

It's also nothing whatsoever to do with expected utility theory (I don't know where they did get it from). 'Utility monsters' - per Rawls - are a valid objection; 'money monsters' are not, for the very reason that marginal economic gain is not equivalent to marginal gain in happiness/utility, nor would anyone think it is.