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by entropicgravity 1525 days ago
According to Musk, for Tesla, batteries will be bigger than autos. Full Safe Driving will be bigger than autos (because of driverless taxis), and the robot will be bigger than autos. So if you buy into this then the stock is justified.

I personally expect Tesla to continue to be a fabulous car company but these other segments seem unlikely for various reasons.

2 comments

> So if you buy into this then the stock is justified.

Tesla was not incorporated yesterday, they are a 20 years old company, still they are in the making promises phase.

In the same timeframe Amazon completely disrupted the way we buy things, Microsoft put a PC on every desk, Google became the way the world searches for information and Facebook revolutionized the way we communicate.

I think it's time to admit to ourselves that this guy is just a wannabe influencer/politician.

Among the 500 companies in the S&P500 if Tesla disappeared tomorrow it would be the one whose demise would be felt the least by the American consumer, that shouldn't come as a surprise because frankly speaking the target demographic of Tesla and its CEO aren't consumers who buy products to improve the quality of their own lives.

It's a weird mix of financial speculators, cryptobros, people who feel the need to be part of something bigger than themselves, and virtue signalers.

It's a pity that such experiment cannot be performed, Walmart sold 600B worth of products last year, Amazon 400B, Berkshire has 800B worth of insurance premiums AUM. Diappear those companies and then let's see if people are still so eager to pay attention to mr. Musk and his absurd claims and social media trolling/bullying.

You may not like it but Tesla is a real company making an important product with substantial real revenues and growing at a remarkable rate.

The valuation is questionable but saying he is just a wannabe politician / influencer is factually incorrect.

> important product

Sure in Bel Air is really important to own a Tesla, just like (if not more) than the car brands mentioned in my handle...

> substantial real revenues

How much of that is credits?

> growing at a remarkable rate

A company incorporated 20 years ago growing at a remarkable rate either implies incompetence in its administration up to now, or a dishonest scheme put in place to artificially simulate "a remarkable rate of growth" right now.

Companies with similar access to talent and capital simply came to dominate their industry in the same timeframe (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Salesforce, Intel, HP...)

Globally speaking what % of cars sold are Teslas? 1 or 2 % ? Tesla and Musk dominate the newscycle of the financial press, the tabloids and the blogsphere but out there, in the real world they are essentially nonexistent. It seems like the dictionary definition of an influencer to me.

Lol, the regulatory credit thing again. Here are the Q1 numbers [0]:

- Total revenue: $18,756M

- Gross profit: $5,460M

- Total regulatory credits: $679M

So to answer your question, about 4% of their revenue is credits. It’s been tiny compared to automotive revenue for at least a year. So we can stop perpetuating that little myth.

0: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/IOSHZZ_TSLA_Q1_2022_Updat...

Tesla is shipping 1.2m cars / year and just finished two ginormous state of the art factories in Giga Berlin and Austin, that will end up doubling that. There is so much demand for these autos, outside of Bel Air, that it currently takes 8 months for a Model Y order today to arrive, even though the current factories are producing full capacity. Why are you so hung up about credits from last year?
Exactly, Elon keeps coming up with these crazy new markets for Tesla because you at least need some semblance of possibility that it could grow forever. The recent robot portrayed with a person in a robot costume seems like a desperate last minute grasping at straws to keep stock prices climbing.