[JoeAltmaier]

A lot of assumptions there that things will continue to get cheaper, cost in manufacturing will drop, battery range will continue to improve, charging stations continue to proliferate, the grid respond to the burden, and no missteps in captialization and expansion cause it all to collapse.

[CryptoPunk]

Extremely safe assumptions given the investments being made by Tesla, not to mention other carmakers. The electric grid responding to the burden is almost certain as well, given the history of the grid handling decades of rising year-over-year energy usage in most localities.

As for mistakes, the company can afford many small to intermediate missteps and still accomplish what I described, because the company's momentum is already pushing it to accomplish these achievements.

[JoeAltmaier]

Optimistic!

The grid has not responded well, that is history. Fast Charging stations are a huge draw, and home recharging raised the bar for substations everywhere. It will take decades to respond.

Battery advances - well that's a crystal ball I don't care to gaze into.

And company momentum is a myth. Cash flow is king - the day you don't make payroll, you close. It's a markov chain with a terminating condition. Play any markov game long enough and you reach that node and its all over. So a gamble every time.

[CryptoPunk]

I have seen no numbers to support the claim that mass installation and employment of charging stations will have an extraordinary impact on electricity usage, beyond the normal annual increases that the grid has been able to facilitate.

As for batteries, you don't have to bet on battery advances, just the scaling up of manufacturing, which is already underway.