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by 0x12 5365 days ago
Five lines down:

> Three years. Sometimes a bit less, sometimes a bit more.

3 years is pretty quick in terms of success, in terms of failure it is an eternity. It all depends on what you perceive the trend to be. If the trend 'flatlines' then you can draw a negative conclusion much earlier. After a year or less you can probably predict quite accurately what the future will look like.