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by imtringued
1523 days ago
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The biggest problem with an LVT isn't when it's too low. Even a low LVT can prevent empty parking lots and abandoned properties. The problem with LVTs start when the LVT is too high as everyone abandons the land and nobody wants to acquire it. That is a real nightmare because of the extremely high valuations of land fueled by low land value and property taxes. Transitioning to a steep LVT is difficult because the assumption is that the LVT drops the value of the land if the yearly tax payment is too high. A $1 million dollar plot of land isn't supposed to pay $50k in taxes. The payment you are willing to make is say $10k per year which means the value of the land drops to $200k. Making that jump is extremely difficult. It's only really viable if you started with the LVT from the beginning. The reason why Germany can transition to an LVT is because the property taxes it charges are laughably low to begin with. Around 200€ to 1000€ per year. There is no plan to increase taxes to lower the value of land and put pressure to solving the housing problem. |
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What's nice about looking at the improvements is we should always be able to figure out the cost to build the building initially, we can look at the repair costs.
Say we have a house that was just built. We know for sure that this cost $500k to construct. We have the bills. Make the market price of the lot and house cost $500k and the tax is perfect. Done. If the tax is above the correct value, the auction bid will be under $500k, that's bad! Lower the tax.
Now let's say it's 10 years later. There has been depreciation on the house. It's no longer worth the $500k. If we still tax the building as if its worth $500k, what happens? It turns out we under-tax the 100% LVT. But as we know, under-taxing is okay, not perfect, but okay. It's over-taxing that is harmful!
What happens if someone bids $600k for it? Now we know we are significantly under-taxing the area and have good reason to increase the tax, and send out an appraiser to look at it.
Lastly I just need to point out that in a LVT world, it is kinda going to be like the "Don't fight the Fed" line. If you know that bidding $600k on a $500k house is going to force a tax inspection, you might not be so happy to lose $100k, so you might bid less. You might even bid $500k simply because that's what the home is worth, you might fund the appraisal yourself so that you don't risk your $100k. As the speculation is driven out of the market, the values of homes will be much more steady than they are today, and land appraisal will therefore become much easier and uniform. Even Zillow could do appraisal's with a LVT.