[stupandaus]

yes, there are many factors that can influence a valuation. and in different price ranges, different factors will have different weights. since the price is not $0 today and is relatively close to the potential transaction price, the % likelihood of a transaction has much more influence.

[ironSkillet]

I think the comment is more about the fact that your calculation of 83% doesn't make sense. However, I agree with you that likelihood of the deal going through is definitely impacting the short term valuation.