[caylus]

> people you encounter who wildly overestimate their ability are more likely to people who are poor performers

How is this helpful? You won't know whether someone is "overestimating" their ability until you learn both their estimated and actual performance, at which point you don't need to guess whether they're "likely" to have poor actual performance.

[jtc331]

It's an explanation for why our anecdotal intuition concludes what it does here.

I think you're misreading the point of my comment.