| Russian Population: 145.20m
Ukrainian Population: 41.46m Morale:
While the war is popular in Russia, that's mostly among older generation who won't be fighting in the war.
On the other hand Ukraine is highly motivated to not become a part of Russia. Logistics:
The Russian military logistics are terrible, their military was built to wage a defensive war next to Russian railroads. They don't have much practice projecting power. Kleptocracy:
The Russian commanders have been systematically stealing all of the money Putin was pumping into the military. Training:
Since 2014 the Ukrainian military has undergone a revolution building a modern NATO trained military, the Russian military just isn't as good. Command:
The Russian military does a lot of top down decision making, this means they can't react to news quickly. There observe -> decide -> act cycle is so long they can't really hit moving targets. The only advantage Russia has is a larger population, and nuclear weapons. Every other advantage is to the Ukrainian's. Right now Russia has taken losses similar or worse than the absolutely worst his armies in the civil war. There are battalions where 80% of the soldiers are dead or wounded. A large portion of the Russian military goes home in June, and they're going to have a tough time replacing them when Ukraine is viewed as a meat grinder. |