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by bentona 1522 days ago
Any clue what one of these might cost?
2 comments

The vapourware product or the whole scam-ish company?
I think most I’d probably pay is somewhere between $2-3k
Let's pretend this is real and a magic box that sits in a corner and outputs 5 kW of power (with ignorable fuel cost), and lasts 10 years.

First of all, they can simply put it in a corner and sell the power. Wholesale generation prices vary but around 5 ct/kWh is a good approximation. That would be 25 cents per hour, $6/day, ~2.2k per year. They could probably sell it for at least $20k.

But this can replace grid power. So now they can sell it at least for the price of a solar + battery setup, plus coolness factor surcharge, plus the fact that you can rely on it year-round unlike solar, so you don't need a grid connection at all. Another application where they can probably make at least $20k but probably more from each unit.

Now, let's go further. Electric cars. You'd probably need multiple units and a small battery for peak power demand, but let's ask this way... how much extra do you think people would pay for a truck that magically refuels itself, for free? I'd totally see two of those being a $50-100k upgrade for electric cars. Or a truck that doesn't need batteries and powers your house when parked.

That's just the absolute no-brainer mass market applications. Now imagine anything that is remote or has other difficulties in getting power. Cell towers, scientific or military outposts, spaceships...

That doesn’t matter. If they can produce it for around $1k then let capitalism race to the bottom and bring the price down to $2-3k.

Electricity will become super cheap, so those prices you quoted will drop to pennys per day.

What they can produce it for only matters as a lower limit on the price.

If they can produce it for $1k, and are the only ones who can due to patents, they'll still sell it for whatever the market will bear. Potentially rather choosing to sell 1M units for 100k each instead of 100M units for $1900 each (although I expect too drastic attempts at artificial scarcity would cause the government to expropriate them).

Either way they'd be guaranteed absolutely mad profits if they managed to create this, which is why some people will be willing to throw money at them fully expecting that it's most likely bullshit just because they don't want to miss the opportunity in the unlikely case that it's not.

That’s patently ridiculous. A device that can put out a steady 5kw at nearly zero cost generates >15k worth of electric bill offset annually in California. That would make it worth at least 15k*MTBF…

It’s be less elsewhere, but there’s nowhere that this amount of electricity would be worth so little that $2k makes any sense.

That said, this smells like total Theranos level baloney, so it’ll never happen.