[pseudo0]

> And nowhere on reddit or in the media do I see a discussion of the pros and cons of a Ukrainian surrender. It's really hard to see how Ukraine will successfully fend off a country 10x its size. (If someone has an answer as to why that might be realistic, I'm open to hear it).

The status quo is far too advantageous for the pro-war segment of our national security establishment for that idea to get any traction. Currently we have a "moral" war for the first time since the Balkans, it's strengthening NATO, and Russia is being weakened at the expense of mere pocket change and outdated weapons. And from a PR perspective, the American public cares far less about Ukrainian casualties than dead American soldiers. Then there's the benefit of blaming Putin for inflation with "Putinflation" and advancing other goals like shutting down Nordstream 2 and selling LNG to Europe.

I'm pro-Ukraine, but I can't help but notice how average Ukrainians are being screwed by this conflict, while US foreign policy hawks are breaking out the champagne.

[inglor_cz]

"average Ukrainians are being screwed by this conflict" because Russia decided to attack them and crush their resistance.

I feel sorry for the Ukrainians, having met a lot of refugees in Prague. But I don't believe that they would rather surrender and have "Russian peace". Some of them perhaps, but not the majority. They do not want to be yoked again.

[formerly_proven]

Were "Russian peace" then means "comprehensive de-ukrainification and elimination of the intelligentsia to leave a braindead husk of a state behind", as publicly announced in Russia and partially implemented in occupied areas.

[inglor_cz]

Oh, yes, it is basically the kind of peace that the Mouth of Sauron offered to Aragorn and Gandalf during their parley, if not worse.

[pseudo0]

Are they going to end up with a better deal than what Russia was demanding before the war, or a worse one? Right now it's looking like worse, with Russia demanding territorial concessions in addition to Ukraine staying out of NATO.

And that's not even considering how Ukraine has taken thousands of casualties, has it's economy wrecked, had millions of people flee the country, and much of their infrastructure is ruined.

[ekanes]

That compares the options as if the negotiation was a one-time thing. But game theory would say that giving in to Russian demands would get you … more demands.

[inglor_cz]

Yes, any sort of demilitarization would make them into a satellite state, crushable at will.

They can possibly agree to territorial losses (though after all the bloodshed and murder I consider even that unlikely - not just that, but the West does not want Putin to gain anything from this war, so it will support Ukraine until victory, however long it takes), but not to any kind of hollowing out of their army. That would be a prolonged national suicide.