[tomrod]

> Any mental model that assigns zero weight to the probability of being wrong is a wrong mental model.

This is true when there is uncertainty. It also doesn't connect to "I only hire people who think like I do", which is the context of my response, so I don't follow your point.

Agreed on your other point that you need to instrument endogeneity. Another requirement is plausibility. Hookworm presence in Greenland should be uncorrelated to solar sunspots.