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by ddaalluu2 1536 days ago
You know that Russian tanks are throwaway tanks. Low quality, cheap and fast production, built to abandon.
5 comments

Yes, but two important things to consider:

1. Russia makes almost no industrial parts itself. They don't have the know-how or machinery to do so, because it has atrophied from unuse over the last thirty years. Most industrial parts come from Europe. Europe has banned exporting industrial parts to Russia. Therefore Russia can not make more of its current tank types (or anything really). They'd have to reboot all their industry from scratch to be able to build from scratch. A decades long project at least.

2. Most of the reserve of russian tanks are in long term storage. They are reportedly in complete disrepair and far from combat ready. Russia doesn't have the industrial capacity to repair them, see point 1.

Bottom line is that the tanks Russia has committed to Ukraine are it. Ukrainians are blowing them up at an alarming rate, and Russia has only weeks worth of tank supply left before they are at a direct disadvantage in tank supply compared to the Ukrainians who are gaining supply.

> Russia has only weeks worth of tank supply left before they are at a direct disadvantage in tank supply compared to the Ukrainians who are gaining supply.

Can I ask where you found this data? Specifically, I'd like to see the math of the war. Ideally, I want to see graphs over time.

There's a git repo with graphs drawn from the data of confirmed visual sightings of equipment:

https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

In particular this graph here which shows Russia is at at steep net loss over time, while Ukraine is gaining modestly over time:

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine/m...?

Circling back just to document that this happened not in weeks as I was projecting, but in only 9 days: https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1517165874372825092

"Ukraine has more tanks available in country than Russia, thanks to European deliveries of Soviet-era T-72 tanks: senior defense official"

They are more like steel coffins than anything else in Ukraine. Due to storing ammo around the turret, a single direct hit and can make a Russian tank cook off all of its shells and both destroy the tank and kill everyone inside.

And even if they are build to abandon, they only have so many of them, Russia has reportedly already burnt through ~33% of the tanks that they have committed to Ukraine.

Russia equipped real soldiers with throwaway tanks and not surprisingly made throwaway soldiers.

This is having a profound emotional impact on villages already reeling before the war from the lack of young men to start families (due to rampant alcoholism and suicide).

This conflict alone will result in 1 million fewer people in two generations as it stands, and this number will only grow as Putin tries to save face.

Not sure how you get 1 mil fewer people when there are only about 20k dead so far?
The downstream generational damage of no future children and so on
Are the tank crews lost with the vehicles? Those are not nearly as throwaway.
Generally pretty often, frequently the hit from a NLAW or Javelin from above triggers the ammo, which then blows the top off, and kills everyone inside. The ammo forms a ring around the turret, and once the ammo goes off it often flings the turret off the tank.

The Russian tanks are smaller and use 3 people, and an autoloader. But the ammo is stored in the crew compartment. The American M1 abrams is larger, has a human as a loader, and has a separate compartment with blow out panels so the ammo can cook off and the crew could survive. I've no data on that survival rate, but presumably it's much higher than the Russian tanks.

Semi-related but it's interesting to read about the Merkava and its design philosophy, because crew preservation is the number one priority.
> You know that Russian tanks are throwaway tanks. Low quality, cheap and fast production, built to abandon.

Russians could've easily lost as much even with better military hardware.

Most of Russian military hardware losses are not from battles, but from soldiers routing, and abandoning their vehicles, which are LATER destroyed, or captured.

Most Russian tanks were disabled by artillery, and missiles, not tank vs. tank battles. No tank in the world would survive a 40kg missile, or an artillery shell hitting its roof. So, the quality of hardware is irrelevant.

What is really low quality is the Russian military leadership.

The key here is to understand that losses do not come from 40kg missiles themselves, but from Russian generals knowingly sending their troops into ATGM, and artillery killboxes, and from Russian troops knowing their generals intentions, and acting accordingly (routing upon first battle damage)