[ratww]

> But it's a decent approximation for dependencies that are low ROI but potentially high impact if they break, like a UI widget that gets used everywhere in your app.

Not really, it's not decent at all. What is a great approximation, however, is the heuristic presented by the grandparent poster: projects that are easy to audit, easy to fork (if necessary) and don't have outrageously large dependency trees. Everything else is a liability.