[kstenerud]

OK, having transcribed and read the whole talk, I fail to see what misconceptions I have. Mearsheimer is mostly correct in that NATO expansion and Western misunderstanding of the Russian psyche precipitated the conflict in Ukraine, but this didn't change Putin's ambitions, which were always the same.

Even Clinton is perplexed at Russian reactions: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clint...

Mearsheimer is absolutely wrong in suggesting that Russia is not interested in absorbing Ukraine and the other satellite states. But then again he's framing it in some sort of Afghanistan-like invasion and ensuing quagmire, which of course Putin would never (knowingly) do.

Here's a nice quote from 23:41: "In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that."

[s1artibartfast]

>"In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that."

I think there is still a ton of time for these intentions to play out, and I think they the quote is still accurate. Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so. If they invasion went better than their wildest dreams, they might have taken what is east of the Dnieper, but would be unlikely to hold on to that.

The invasion did and still lines up with the intentions of regime change, and taking some boarder regions.

[kstenerud]

"Russia can not conquer all of Ukraine, and never attempted to do so."

Russia did absolutely attempt to do exactly that. This invasion was modelled after Operation Danube, intended to:

- Cut off all major airstrips by landing planes in friendship and then unloading paratroopers to capture them.

- Quickly enter the major cities and capture the "illegitimate" government.

- Crush the pockets of resistance among the mostly pro-Russian populace.

- Install a Russia-friendly government.

- Execute the old government as a warning against other countries.

Of course, none of it went according to plan. The upper government was misinformed about their own military strength and preparedness, the supposedly already "pro-Russian" Ukrainians who would just stand by and let this happen, and the world response. Also, the Ukrainian military was forewarned, so the airstrip captures ... didn't exactly go according to plan :P

And since this was expected to take half a week tops, nobody bothered to set up proper supply lines or airforce + ground + artillery coordination. After all, why bother with all of that on a milk run?

[s1artibartfast]

You are forgetting an entire half of the country with cities and airports.

Even then, operation Danube is more akin to regime change than conquering and occupying a country, which was mersheimers point

[kstenerud]

At this point we're splitting hairs. I'm not interested in scoring points.

[s1artibartfast]

Thats fine, but it is the central part of the quote

>"In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that."

This is true if you are talking about military occupation. obviously not true for a coup, assassination, or quick regime change.