[upofadown]

I think that would be a bit every 2 years based on Moore's law after the 80's and actual progress has been slower than that for something like a decade now. There are looming fundamental physical limits.

Moore's law refers to hardware capacity and not speed. If you can't figure out how to completely parallelize your attack then that is important. And things are not getting significantly faster.

So a lot of stuff is likely to be safe indefinitely under current technological conditions. A complete breakthrough like quantum computing would be required. Makes it hard to predict things.