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Cost for solar panels is still in free fall. Nothing is being subsidized at anything like the amount we pay for oil extraction: every last barrel pumped is paid out for, cash on the barrelhead, hundreds of $billions every year. You pay for a panel exactly one time, and then it delivers for years. The point about round-trip efficiency being negligible is that you only rarely need to draw down on those easy-to-ship, easy-to-store media. All you need is, say, 2x more panels to use to top them up again. Most of the time, those extra panels are driving synthesis to sell, generating revenue. Shipping is always cheap. In the future, we can expect the ships to burn ammonia synthesized in the tropics. Storage costs are falling even faster than for solar panels. Solar can be co-sited with roofs, where it extends the life of the roof; with parking lots, where it extends the life of the cars; with reservoirs and canals, where it cuts evaporation and biofouling, and also operates cooler, thus 3% more efficiently; and with pasture and farmland, where it increases yield by reducing heat stress, and cuts water demand. So, yes, there is way more room for solar panels than you will ever want. Solar panels are usually made of silicon, which makes up 28% of the Earth's crust. The mass of solar panels needed per kW is falling even faster than their cost. Ammonia is toxic. But we already handle literally millions of tons of it every year without incident. It is lighter than air, so if it leaks, it can't blanket a nearby town like, say (just picking at random) methyl isocyanate. |