[adam_arthur]

1. We have a demographic trend towards lower demand as GenZ population is smaller than Millenial, and Baby boomers will mostly die off over the next 10 years (Japan problem). Yes this considers immigration

2. We are close to all time highs in home construction pipeline, and the rate of starts is at 2000s bubble levels and increasing. We will likely eclipse the 70s building peak sometime this year.

3. If they aren't selling they also aren't buying (generally). Somebody choosing not to move due to low rate has no net effect on inventory

These narratives have been powerful in shaping the FOMO psychology though, despite data showing the exact opposite is true.

What's driving housing now is pure psychology, and low active listings (not low structural supply). The Fed will likely start selling MBS, driving rates to 6% or above to solve both of these.

Though the fact they even bought MBS for so long to begin with somewhat implies they don't care about creating a bubble in housing. Maybe they do nothing and let it ride