[oytis]

> I personally see no evidence Ukraine is exhausted

There are news of a few fuel stores blown up by Russians every day. This limits Ukrainian mobility greatly. Ukraine has not been able to regain any significant territory despite the majority of Russian army being concentrated around Mariupol. Russian army makes advances in Mariupol step by step and after that will be free to attack other parts of Ukraine. Whether it will is going to be a decision of one man.

> they are about to learn that they will be ostracized and blocked at every turn when they try to reintegrate with the rest of the world

With the rest of Western world to be precise. Yes, isolation of Russia from the West is likely to succeed (although I see threats to this as well in Hungary, Germany and France). But it is open whether it will be enough to restrain Russia's military power in the long term.

Isolation was just the start of the first Cold War, and is probably a start of the new one. Winning it was, and still is a non-trivial challenge.