[loves_mangoes]

All those little bits of knowledge are nice tools and patterns, they're definitely good to have. And if you have curiosity, you will naturally keep learning dozens of those over time.

But they are not applicable everywhere, so you should not expect your 8 hour days to turn into 48 minutes because you started using regexes, dynamic programming, and search algorithms everywhere.

The unlikable and unhelpful answer, but probably the single biggest fundamental multiplier, is unfortunately the g factor. General intelligence.

The only 10x differences that genuinely exist are between people who are 2x faster than average and people who are 5x worse. Not because they learned a trick, but for a complex combination of reasons, including having been handed down two or three standard deviations in general intelligence.

The harsh reality is that there is no single thing a 1x person can do to become 10x.

[lanstin]

You may wish to read Gould's Mismeasure of Man, and about thw fallacy of reification.

And brain plasticity, and the characteristics of high performing groups or institutions.

Changing the way your group works together is going to have a more profound difference on the outcomes than focusing on individual performance.

[loves_mangoes]

I think you're right that focusing on group effects will be more productive, but I probably reach the same conclusion for different reasons :)

I intuitively don't like the idea of the 10x programmer, my core argument is actually that you should not try to become a 10x programmer, and that there's no order of magnitude productivity you can gain in a vacuum, ignoring group dynamics. So you shouldn't focus on individual performance too much! There's not much you can do about it, anyways

Managing groups of people is hard, and there's often big inefficiencies that are going to be obvious to some people (engineers love to complain about management!) but that have a true multiplier effect when fixed. Because for the time invested, you have an effect on the whole team. That's a true multiplier.

I don't know what specifically you think I should learn about the fallacy of reification, but please feel free to elaborate.

[Izkata]

> The only 10x differences that genuinely exist are between people who are 2x faster than average and people who are 5x worse.

The original idea of a 10x developer was between best and worst, not best and average.

[rmbyrro]

> The harsh reality is that there is no single thing a 1x person can do to become 10x.

Any evidence for this? You may say there's no evidence that a 1x person can work up to 10x its performance, but stating it's impossible without evidence lacks merit.

[loves_mangoes]

Two answers to this.

The first I sort of already touched on below is that gaining a whole order of magnitude productivity, not just on a single task where a cool pattern applies but on average, is a really big effect size. If your colleagues start completing tasks that should take a month in 3 days, you would definitely notice.

The second order effect is that if we had discovered any method that reliably let an average person gain 10x productivity, it would have generated tremendous profit for companies and spread like wildfire. We haven't seen that, so we should be very suspicious when people claim a single bit of knowledge, method, or pattern is going to improve your performance by 10x.

(The other response, which is also annoying and unsatisfying, is that I'm making the boring claim that there is nothing interesting, so the burden of proof is actually not on me. If someone thinks there exists any intervention that can increase an arbitrary developer's performance by 10x, it's up to them to collect data and reject the null hypothesis)

[bckr]

There's no single thing.

[lelele]

The OP is not about 10x more productive, it is about 10x productivity boosts. Using regexes can easily be 10x faster than manual editing, and property-based tests can easily be written 10x faster than a more or less equivalent battery of tests.

[loves_mangoes]

I agree with you :)

I actually like those little patterns a lot, there are problems where you might absolutely take 10x longer because you didn't know the algorithm or the right machine learning concept.

The OP talks about becoming "significantly more productive when solving a large class of problems", and where my interpretation differs is what you mean by large class of problem.

What's large for you is really going to be relative and will vary based on your personal experience, so I can't say you're wrong. I know I speak at least for myself I when I say that in my day to day, most of what I do is not leetcode-type problems, so despite knowing many algorithms I don't think I would be 10x slower if I didn't know them.

If your interpretation of OP is that these boosts will on average give you 10x more productivity, that's the only place where I really disagree.

[rockemsockem]

On the point of regexes, I think you might be misunderstanding OP. Regexes have absolutely given me a 10x productivity boost over the years, but not because I write production code that relies on regexes to parse things, extract things, etc.

The 10x productivity boost I get with regexes is being able to effectively automate out a lot of text manipulation on a large scale. A couple examples. Say I get a file with a bunch of junk in it that contains some IDs that I need to use as input to other commands. I write a simple regex in a text editor, find all, delete everything else, then use other regexes (or multiline editing) to wrap those IDs with the commands I actually want to run. A more impactful example. Several years ago I was writing a new loadtest suite, when I realized that it would look A LOT like some existing load tests we had. They weren't close enough for composition or inheritance to solve the issue completely (we were already both in a few places in the codebase to help out), so I used a similar process that I laid out above to write the new loadtest suite. I barely wrote any of the code manually, I was doing most of the work from a level of abstraction above, making broad code changes with regexes. I did it all in an afternoon.

To get the 10x multiplier from regexes you've got to basically bake them into everything you do.

[loves_mangoes]

That's entirely fair. I do the same, a lot. I like writing macros, using regexes, or even short awk scripts to automate any manual text workflows.

I'm not trying to deny your experience, so I can accept your word for it that it would take you 10x longer to complete tasks if you weren't able to do this.

At this point the core of the argument becomes more what sort of mix of tasks your daily work consists of, I think. I agree that there are patterns that solve some problems very efficiently, but in my daily life if I try to look at people who complete projects 10x faster than average, I can't point at any single method or bit of secret knowledge.

So I think the twofold response is first that the average developer is actually able to use search-and-replace and already has some vague notion that regexes are a tool they could reach for, so this is really saying that "0.1x" productivity exists in a way. And I think that's uncontroversial: if you imagine an hypothetical programmer who is still using the `ed` text-editor and hand-writing machine code to address business problems, in a world where people throw together microservices running in K8s in 100 lines of code, they're going to be a lot slower than average.

But I think the question is really about whether starting from an average (or if you want, median) dev there's any single thing that will give you a 10x productivity boost, that's not already something normal the average person knows about.

The second answer I have, and that I keep coming back to, is that if we had such a thing it would be more popular than coffee and morning meetings. It would automatically and very quickly have become something that companies rapidly adopt and that becomes the new normal (like search and replace!).

So finally the point is not that there aren't thing like regexes that slow you down a lot if you don't know them, it's more that there aren't any such things that are also well-kept secret. If the effect size is a whole order of magnitude, you won't have to scour forum threads for secret methods that turn you into a Mythical 10x Programmer, it will just quietly already be on its way to being the new 1x, and it will most likely be a gradual improvement over time.

[brianhorakh]

Respectfully disagree. The compendium of skills integrated is the "Single thing"

[loves_mangoes]

Sure, but I feel like that's trying to argue semantics without really changing the nature of the problem.

If the 'single thing' is really a whole compendium of integrated skills, then you can't easily teach it to people the same way that you can teach them regular expressions or parser combinators.

This sort of nebulous skill that very productive people have is also especially hard to transfer. You can spend a week taking math lessons from Terrence Tao and seeing how he works, but you will still not be Terrence Tao at the end of the week, no matter how many interesting mathematical tools and methods you learn.

My point is that there is No Silver Bullet that will consistently turn your 10 hour days in 1 hour day, or if there is one I have never seen it, and evidently no company has found one. Otherwise all of their employees would follow the same method and become 10x programmers. This has not happened.

It helps to learn popular patterns and algorithms, but I don't think learning more patterns will achieve the kind of order of magnitude improvement you're looking for.