[cperciva]

Exponential smoothing and peak estimation won't help with the fundamental problem, which is that warning based on storage costs alone produces the correct result -- in the sense that funds run out after exactly 7 days -- 90% of the time. Any non-trivial addition of bandwidth costs into the equation is going to hurt far more often than it helps.

[diolpah]

Well, it doesn't produce the correct result for us, where bandwidth costs are more than 7 times storage costs, so we get our warning far too late.