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by StanislavPetrov 1552 days ago
I think this is the most relevant passage in the article:

>Some speculation has focused on the relative youth of Africans. Their median age is 19 years, compared with 43 in Europe and 38 in the United States. Nearly two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is under 25, and only 3 percent is 65 or older. That means far fewer people, comparatively, have lived long enough to develop the health issues (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer) that can sharply increase the risk of severe disease and death from Covid. Young people infected by the coronavirus are often asymptomatic, which could account for the low number of reported cases.

A disease that overwhelming kills the elderly is not going to have a comparable impact on a society where only 3% of the population is over 65. This is especially true when you note that obesity rates in Sub-saharan Africa (with South Africa a notable outlier) are much lower than in "developed" countries that have been hit harder by Covid.

2 comments

Did you stop reading?

Two paragraphs later:

> Since Covid tore through South and Southeast Asia last year, it has become harder to accept these theories. After all, the population of India is young, too (with a median age of 28), and temperatures in the country are also relatively high. But researchers have found that the Delta variant caused millions of deaths in India, far more than the 400,000 officially reported. And rates of infection with malaria and other coronaviruses are high in places, including India, that have also seen high Covid fatality rates.

>India, with 41 million obese people, ranks third after the US and China in having the highest number of overweight people in the world, says a study.

Young, thin people have an extremely low covid mortality rate. Young, obese people have a much higher morality rate.

>In a study of COVID-19 cases in patients aged 18 years and younger, having obesity was associated with a 3.07 times higher risk of hospitalization and a 1.42 times higher risk of severe illness (intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death) when hospitalized.

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/obesity-and-covid-19.html

Look at a map that shows age and obesity, then overlay that map with the severity of Covid outcomes and you will see a very close correlation.

So given the facts about obesity in India (high) vs. obesity in Africa (low) and the median age, I'd say that there is no mystery.

Three risk factors for Corona are Obesity, other comorbidities and age, the rest of the factors are pretty much insignificant.

The best way to protect yourself is the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, which is what people in any of the three groups should do.

What about apparent diff between APOC and non-APOC countries?

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33795896/

That is another enigma, unfortunately i know too little about individual African countries to give a qualified statement.
Thanks for the info.

Not seeing any mention of obesity in the article unfortunately.

Median age of 28, so pretty much half-way between Africa and EU/US. The percentage of population >50 or 60 would be interesting, too, since that's the inspection point where the fatality really ramps up.
That half of the population is under 20 boggles the mind.
That's the default state. It's more surprising that in most countries today there are so many people over 60, and in some so many people over 80.