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by betwixthewires 1551 days ago
I was talking about this a few weeks ago, and a point was made in this article that I was making. We have 3 outcomes here, one, that this thing ends when it ends and there's a new cold war, two that someone launches nukes and it's game over for everyone, or three, that someone drops a nuke and it's not the end of the world, in which case it becomes normal for someone to drop a nuke every once in a while. Still better than the end of the world, but not a good world to live in.

If this ends with no nukes flying I'll be surprised. The stakes are high. Major powers are fighting an existential battle right now. But if it does, the world order is changed dramatically, either Russia controls Ukraine in which case other countries might decide they can do similar (which means it isn't really over) and we slow burn a global conflict, or or Russia loses out and is probably forever relegated to a minor player and someone else fills the power vacuum.
1 comments
gunfighthacksaw 1550 days ago
> or Russia loses out and is probably forever relegated to a minor player

Forever is a long time, Russia has collapsed and risen before. It currently has hegemony over the ‘pivot’ of Eurasia and even in the event of a break-up of the Federation it is unlikely that anyone other than the Chinese will move into Siberia to fill the vacuum. I mean they haven’t in the last 2000 years that I know of. Maybe the Mongols again?

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betwixthewires 1550 days ago
I'm thinking less of the territory of Russia proper and more their sphere of influence in central Asia. I agree that that power vacuum would likely be filled by China.
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sliken 1550 days ago
Heh, sure, not forever, but the cold war ended after the last collapse, certainly looks like Russia is headed towards another one.

Sure Putin could catch a clue and announce that with the resistance, sanctions, inflow of weapons/goods into Ukraine, and world condemnation it isn't worth it. Withdraw all troops, and promise to be good the sanctions would end quickly, GDP/Trade would pick up, and the ruble would gain most of what it lost. Seems unlikely though. The weird thing is it's something like 10x as costly in lives/equipment as previous decade ish long invasions Russia has had, but they don't seem to be adapting.

Does seem like with complete control of the media they could say something like "We killed ever last Nazi and stopped the genocide in the Ukraine and have come home victorius.

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