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by Animats 1548 days ago
Not too helpful, but not useless. On the entire first screen there's an "I" or "Me" in every sentence. Then it gets better.

He's on point with this looking like the runup to WWI. And with Putin wanting a multipolar world.

The Institute for the Study of War has a better analysis of what Putin wants.[1]

“For the first time in the past two hundred to three hundred years, [Russia] is facing a real danger of sliding into the second and possibly third echelon of world states,” - Putin, 2012. Putin has been consistent about his aims. He wants a world with a few Great Powers, with buffer states between them. That's very 19th century, when Europe had about five empires pushing back and forth.

Putin’s Russia—unlike its predecessors—has no state machine or elite capable of balancing out his instincts and narratives. This is extremely important to understand. After Stalin, no leader of the USSR had the authority to start a nuclear war. Unlike the US President, the Premier of the USSR did not have launch authority. Only the Politburo did. That was built into the command and control system. Among other things, the army controlled the launchers and the KGB controlled the warheads, so they both had to work together to launch.

That separation of control has not survived into the Putin era. It's now official policy that Putin has launch authority.[2] That's what so scary this time. It's one guy.

[1] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20R...

[2] https://archive.ph/ibuRS