[simonswords82]

Interesting post, sort of. Not sure why I would trust this guys take over anybody else? I've looked him up and he doesn't seem to have any credentials that make me think his predictions could be more accurate than groupthink.

Happy to be corrected...

[nickff]

This author appears to be somewhat uninformed, and doesn't seem to understand the way decisions are made in a dictatorship. I think the most revealing quote is this one:

>"Third, [these insights] imply that the odds of nuclear war might be higher today than in the Soviet era, because Russia is much weaker. The Soviet Union simply had more ground to give up in a conventional war before defeat appeared existential than does Putin’s smaller empire — which may be a reason why current Russian strategy increasingly prioritizes tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a conventional-war retreat."

The Soviets were actually most afraid of a decapitation strike, which is why their missile defense systems were focused around Moscow, and they put so much money into mobile ICBM launchers and SSBNs. Nuclear weapon usage would be more likely to destabilize the Putin regime than cement it, if you look at it through the lens of political game theory (I recommend "The Logic of Political Survival").

[k__]

Glad to read that.

All these apocalypse talks of uninformed bystanders are really gnawing at my mental health lately...

[kafkaIncarnate]

Just ignore them. Doomers will exist your whole life, they have throughout mine. They used to be the evangelicals, but I guess the failures of Y2K and 2012 to come to fruition made them go... a different insane path.

Russia seems most interested in taking Ukrainian nuclear sites to give to Rosacom, establishing an oil/trade/military corridor through the black sea, and sealing up the holes in the natural physical barriers of defense that the USSR once controlled. Nuking Ukraine, or the world, or whatever, is counter to that goal. Putin miscalculated the sanctions the west would take in reaction to their invasion as most sanctions have been pretty tame in the past, so with the assumption that no or limited sanctions would be imposed, invasion might have made sense in a psychopath's world chess game. Obviously very little of this has gone to plan, but making things worse is not going to help him either.

Any real worry should go toward the primary real effects of the actual civilian casualties in Ukraine, including any real possibility of tactical nuclear warheads used (possible, but only semi-likely... still would be likely smaller than Hiroshima or Nagasaki if used) and the secondary effects of the wheat issues on the food supply in Africa and the Middle East in the coming years from low-yield of Ukrainian and Russian wheat crops. Oil/gas is going to be a clusterfuck but it'll adapt.

[beebmam]

Hmm. If the Soviets were so deeply afraid of nuclear annihilation, maybe the US and NATO should be threatening it offensively as a means to get concessions. Like Russia has been doing.

[petre]

That would mean China scores points by showing restraint.

Also NATO is a defensive alliance and it might break up if any member threatens other states with nukes.