[MrZongle2]

"...or whatever dictator follows him."

This phrase saddens me, but it seems the most likely outcome.

When the power brokers in Moscow acknowledge that Putin has become a liability, they'll replace him so they can return to the kleptocratic status quo.

I highly doubt there will be a popular uprising against him, which at least would allow for a chance for democratic progress.

[lhoff]

I was listening to a podcast recently where they were discussion the best possible outcome for Russia in the comming years and there conclusion was a strong but benevolent dictator (maybe a women) that slowly paves the way towards democracy. There sentiment was that Russia is not ready for democracy right now because of years and years of propaganda and suppression of an intellectual elite.

[jacquesm]

They had that. Gender aside, Gorbachev did just that. And then the thieves moved in.

[ordu]

> There sentiment was that Russia is not ready for democracy right now because of years and years of propaganda and suppression of an intellectual elite. Propaganda and suppression of an intellectual elite are symptoms. The root cause is the possibility for a small group of greedy people to pump oil and gas, get a lot of profits, and to finance a repression machine allowing to cement the status quo. All this scheme is leads inevitably to a simple economy and a concentration of power, when democracy is considered as a threat to profits of a small powerful group.

If there was no possibility to sell oil and gas, then it would be appropriate to discuss if a benevolent dictator might help to build a democracy. While this possibility persists nothing will help. Now it seems West is going to ban exports from Russia (I'm very excited), but there is China. China will benefit from supporting Russia on it's way to a North Korea scenario. So I believe there is no hope for a democracy in Russia.

[dopamean]

Which podcast?

[lhoff]

Its a german podcasts thats why i didn't include a link. Its called UKW and it was in episode 94. If anyone is interested, here is the link: https://ukw.fm/ukw094-ukraine-taktische-wahrheit/

[elcritch]

Unfortunately that seems very likely. Though I have vague hope for a "twist" wherein the invasion energizes Ukraine and leads them to have a new "slavic cultural bloom". If that happened and they rid themselves of the excessive corruption and their economy grew with it there could then be a spillover effect back to Russia.