[jialutu]

You don't have to wait 1-2 years, there are already studies for the US voting.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...

Basically, the TL;DR version of this is that no, the average voter's decisions do not sway the decision of politicians, but the politicians decisions are heavily correlated with the preferences of the top 10% earners.

[vinyl7]

I've noticed this for many many years, and it's part of the reason why I changed to registering as an independent. Listen to the candidate's campaigns, their goals, their views...it all sounds great. Then they get voted in and don't do anything of what they said they would do. On one hand it's frustrating, but on the other hand it works the same when looking at the opposing candidate. So it's kind of like...things won't get better but they probably also won't get drastically worse if my chosen candidate doesn't win.

[mcv]

The US needs more than two parties. Unfortunately the system is rigged against that, and neither of the two ruling parties are eager to fix the system that keeps them in power.