[adam_arthur]

This inventory metric is simply active listings. It has nothing to do with structural housing supply. It also doesn't include houses that are listed and sold within the same month

If 1m people decided to sell tomorrow, suddenly inventory would be normal. At the end of the day what matters is how many housing units are there and how many households. To say there's a shortage is simply wrong, given that the ratio is well in line with historical norms.

The number of active listings is low because a surge of demand due to low interest rates and then later FOMO ate through active inventory. If rates hit 5% within the month, you'll be surprised how quickly inventory returns to normal.

Way too much statistics crimes when talking about housing

[deepakhj]

Ok, I'll revisit this thread when rates are 5% and inventory jumps back to 1.5m.

[adam_arthur]

Great! Should only be a few months.

I use logic and accurate interpretation of the data in my assessment, all these counter arguments use statistic butchering and hopium. Yet people cling to the narrative for whatever reason. Bias is a hell of a drug.

If inflation persists at 4-5% we will see 6% mortgages within the year. Many are blinded by the last decade of low inflation. If inflation suddenly dissipates, due to a shock etc, then housing prices can preserve at these levels.