[shoo]

It can be very difficult to look at the realised outcome and disentangle how much of that outcome was driven by decision making, and how much was due to variability of factors entirely outside of your control, i.e. "luck". What if your decision making is poor and over-fitted to current conditions that are not guaranteed to persist, but you keep (temporarily) winning anyway?

Taleb writes about this kind of thing in Fooled by Randomness. Poker player Annie Duke's book "thinking in bets" also goes into it.

I reckon to some extent public market conditions in recent years since GFC have approximately been "stock market only goes up" with a few small fluctuations from covid, negative oil price weirdness, etc. Lots of investors trying desperately to invest cash in recent years pouring money into variety of highly speculative areas -- SPACs, crypto, fraudulent EV companies (Nikola rolling their "truck" down the hill to make it look like it was self propelled, lol).

At some point the music will stop.