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by adhesive_wombat
1554 days ago
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Impossible to say without knowing the variance (and actually the distribution in general) of the data. But it would be nice to see a trend of time between records: if temperatures are not changing, we'd see the intervals increasing (setting records from a random distribution gets rarer and rarer). But if they're constant or increasing, that's a sign temperatures must be increasing on average. However, that said, 9 of 10 ten of the hottest years on record happened within the last 10 years[1] (or if NOAA is not trustworthy to you, all 10 of the hottest UK years on record are since 2002 [2]), which would be extremely unlikely to be random chance, even if temperatures were completely random. It would take much deeper statistical analysis then I can do to tell you the sigmas of those events, though. [1] https://www.noaa.gov/news/2021-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-o... [2] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weat... |
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