| I think it’s too soon to make an assessment. Trump spent his whole presidency casting aspersions on NATO, and tried to cut defense aid to Ukraine. If this situation escalates further, he may be viewed as a James Buchanan figure. And I do think things may get worse. Currently a sovereign country is being invaded and civilians are being targeted. The second order effects might be even worse * If Russia pulls resources from Syria then the civil war might come to a head. The regime leans heavily on Russian air support * Russian paramilitary provides defense for unpopular governments like Tanzania’s. If they got pulled these countries might go into civil war * Ukraine and Russia are two of the worlds largest exporters of grain. Countries like Egypt are big importers (Egypt actually subsidizes the purchases heavily). If grain costs go up (and other commodities like oil) this could cause unrest * Nuclear war * Cyber war targeting key infrastructure. The possibility of massive collateral damage is high (see Not Petya) Some of these things are not intrinsically bad (I have no love for despotic governments for example) but the potential sum total of events could throw the world into chaos. The War on Terror was a massive mistake. America needs to keep the crazy evangelicals who want to bring on the end times by attacking the Middle East far from the oval office. But taking on an isolationist position in response to the 2000’s would be a massive mistake. It’s clearer than ever that power vacuums have to be filled |