[everforward]

I genuinely don't think this is true. FSD is better than a lot of people make it out to be, but I'm pretty sure they're still leagues behind Cruise who is behind Waymo.

I don't think Tesla publishes their data, but from the 2021 report [1] Cruise is at 42,022 miles/disengagement and Waymo is at 7,800. In fairness, Waymo switched their car base car, which seems to be causing issues. Waymo was at 29,944 miles/disengagement in 2020.

The videos I've seen of Teslas appear to have a much lower miles/disengagement number. Even if we presume they're going 60mph the whole time (they're not), they would need to have 1 disengagement per 130 hours of video just to keep up with Waymo's new, much lower stats. They'd need 1 disengagement per 700 hours of video to keep up with Cruise. With a more realistic estimate of an average 15mph, you'd have to quadruple those numbers.

There's some wiggle room, because disengagements and whether they're reportable is somewhat subjective. The delta seems large enough to say that Tesla isn't particularly close, though.

1. https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disen... (the dataset is available from the CA DMV, but it's in CSV so I used this because graphs)