[leobg]

Mearsheimer’s prediction, based on the assumption that this is a superpower feeling under existential threat:

“The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact what the Russians are going to do is they're going to crush the Ukrainians. They're going to bring out the big guns. They're going to turn places like Kiev and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They're going to do Fallujahs.”

https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc?t=1257

[tim333]

Thing is Russia itself isn't under existential threat and never was. No one was thinking of invading it or attacking it. This seems more about trying to re-establish a Russian empire where it controls other countries.

In some ways it's more like Afghanistan where they thought they'd go occupy some country and then found it too expensive and unrewarding.

I'm not sure Russia, or at least 99% of Russia wanted to invade Ukraine proper which it why Putin asked their parliament to recognise Donbass rather than admitting his real plan. It's kind of one man's project.

[leobg]

Jump backwards a minute or two from the timestamp I linked to. Addressed exactly this point.