[smitty1e]

To what effect? So that Ukraine can join Vietnam and Afghanistan and form a "Do Not Do This" triefecta for military history?

If this were the only concern, should we just tacitly support Ukraine until Russia implodes? There are nuclear weapons rattling around in there. Politics is all about managing uncertainties. I should think a calmer, less dictatorial outcome would be everyone's interests.

Or is it? Because Ukraine/Russia, while tragic for those involved, is hors d'oeuvres for the real discussion: Taiwan. Anyone paying much attention these last years knows what's going down as soon as the Ukraine situation is escalated to a full-on regional conflict.

May Fortune lay peace and wisdom upon the heads of all the leaders involved.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

If anything, this has made me doubt that Taiwan's eventual takeover will be via a hot war. The country is smaller, but its military is actually slightly larger than Ukraine's was, and they have better technology than the Ukrainians did. And the Chinese would need to cross 180km of water to get there. And the only point of taking over Taiwan is for what's already there -- the people, the technology. Shelling it would be counterproductive to say the least.

I would imagine some sort of interdiction/economic approach would be much more efficient for China. Or just wait until an amenable political group takes power on the island and reintegrate at that point.

[wolverine876]

Everyone fights the last war. An attack on Taiwan would be nothing like Ukraine, and if it happens, everyone will readjust their expectations for the next war - and be surprised again.

[tarsinge]

Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Honestly I’m not the sure the claim is illegitimate enough to stop China (at least that’s what I get after just reading Wikipedia), so while unfortunate for Taiwan at least I hope public opinion in other countries might not want a war, given it’s not even recognized by a lot of countries. The strategic importance it has for the US (and Europe?) is problematic obviously though.

[tim333]

There's always the more modern and enlightened way of doing thing of having something like a Chinese Union like the European Union with free trade and the like but separate governments. I'm hoping the mess in Ukraine encourages the Chinese to look to more peaceful options.

[smitty1e]

> Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine?

Arguments can be made. Also: lost, for a glance at Hong Kong.

[tim333]

Hong Kong was never really independent hence the lack of a war there. It was part of China, then a British colony, then returned to China.

[smitty1e]

That's a high-level summary, skipping over substantial detail.