[hinkley]

"Thinking Fast and Slow" makes a quite extended argument that our brains have a faulty intuition about probabilities, and I nodded along thinking of all the bad decisions I've watched my teams make over the years (either noticed retrospectively, or presaged by myself or some other old hat).

If you have a way to fix this, you would be set for life, going around playing a sort of corduroy jacketed Robin Hood, keeping the rich from stealing from the poor.

[groby_b]

I have a corduroy jacket... so, halfway there? ;)

Realistically, it is (somewhat) fixable in small contexts. I've worked (and continue to work) on teams that are somewhat decent at risks and probabilities, but it's definitely an exceptional experience.

I don't know how to widely teach that. But I'm not yet ready to give up and say "it can't be taught", because those folks on my team are the counterexamples.