[Adrig]

Phones are by far the least concerning issue for Russians. Every major semiconductor foundries have stopped supplying Russia, setting them back decades technologically. Supply chains will be hit hard, especially since no one had the time and information to prepare and make some stocks for the transition.

The risk for financial collapse is definitely >0, especially since 2/3 of Russia reserve is frozen abroad and unavailable to keep the banks afloat in case of a crisis.

Oil and gas exports have slowed down a lot too, so few foreign currencies are coming in.

China will need to play it finely to stay out of trouble with the west (which is a way bigger market for them). If they do business, I see them keeping every chain of production in their country and selling only end products, which mean a massive brain drain and the loss of cutting-edge industries for Russia.

I don't have a lot of experience on this topic but to me, it looks like a hard blow on short, medium, and long term with a high risk of an economic collapse.