[turndown]

Honestly I’m skeptical of this narrative about Russia you’re trying to provide here. I think any reasonable person would agree that having China as an ally is at best a 50/50 beneficial experience… Remember, China is trying to do exactly what Russia is only dreaming of, attaining an economic/military ascendency like the US has. China will take from Russia what it wants and then do what it will. Also, these conversations ignore a few other key facts that totally screw Russia: Brain drain, military morale/the government after this is “over”, the total free fall the economy is currently in(which you appear to believe will go away “once the dust has settled”…) If I were a betting man I wouldn’t be investing in Russia right now, the domestic situation is way too unpredictable with the war going on to be certain an investment in Russia today is totally lost to a revolution in a month or two.

How many times has a reigning autocrat in Russia been severely hobbled, discredited, or ultimately killed because of a terrible military loss that the public was sold on as an easy win?

[adventured]

The most interesting thing about Russia economically, in terms of settling dust, is that Putin has been revealed to be weak and very incompetent. The native mythology and position of Putin is based heavily on strength projection, and now the world is seeing that his military is a joke compared to what it was thought to be. Putin's power is heavily derived from the belief that Russia had a very potent military. Important figures (important to Putin's reign) in their domestic audience are also seeing their weakness on display. The facade was agreed upon (don't talk about the reality of the situation, everyone pretend Russia is strong), and now their context is revealed to be fragile. The reality of their military power debases Putin's image, his own mythology, his own power projection. The worst damage to Russia isn't the economic sanctions, it's the revealing of its decrepitness and national weakness; it's revealing that the tsar has no clothes (as is so often the case).

Putin will have to kill a lot of people in Russia and clamp down massively, extremely violently, to continue holding power over the next decade. It'll only further crush Russia. He didn't have to do that to the extent that people believed he was a competent autocrat, with a hyper powerful military at his behest. Now he'll have to compensate for the loss of that image (an image which was preventing some inevitable challenge to his authority), with raw brutality.

The sharks will begin circling around Russia and Putin's weakness. The thing to be revealed yet is what exactly that's going to look like, what form that will take (for example, China being emboldened to put the squeeze on Russia to its own benefit (whether in trade or otherwise), knowing how weak Russia really is).