[pphysch]

Frankly, Zeihan is a crackpot when it comes to geopolitics. If you rely on him for geopolitical insights, you will be massively misled on virtually every issue.

In particular, it is ridiculous to talk about long-term demographics in a vacuum. We are no longer in the phase of human history where you need millions of young people to be working hard 70 hour weeks. Economic productivity is no longer a function strictly of animal (human) muscle mass. We are, just barely, in the age of automation.

From Disunited Nations:

"Germany will decline as the most powerful country in Europe, with France taking its place. Every country should prepare for the collapse of China..."

LOL

[BitwiseFool]

I'm not sure what's so LOL worthy about this. Germany does seem to be in decline and China does seem to be a house-of-cards in many aspects.

[throwaway_4ever]

German GDP is outpacing the French. One of Germany’s premier global industries is autos and they are successfully transitioning to EV’s. France is in no way overtaking.

[pphysch]

"seem" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

That statement from Zeihan is absolutely hilarious to anyone with a passing knowledge of 21st century history and ongoing trends...

[BitwiseFool]

Seem can be a weasel word, I'll definitely grant you that. My receptiveness to the idea that China is on shaky ground comes from what I was reading about Evergrande coupled with how analysts are reporting that their official numbers are heavily manipulated. I don't think the PRC will collapse into some successor state, but it would probably end up in a Great Depression and lose a large amount of power and influence. Temporarily at least.

[sanp]

We may not need as many producers but we do need consumers...

[kbelder]

Maybe we can just have people consume twice as much.

[mooreds]

Interesting. Who would you recommend reading instead?

[pphysch]

Michael Hudson on global economics - https://michael-hudson.com/2022/02/america-defeats-germany-f...

Benjamin Norton on Latin American geopolitics - https://multipolarista.com/

Pepe Escobar has fantastic & entertaining insights on the Eurasia region if you can stomach the occasionally pro-Russian hagiography - his main site (+ other great analysts) is down to DDOS right now - http://thecradle.co/

The difference between these guys and Zeihan, is these guys are actually on the ground (or spent their careers on the ground), whereas Zeihan is a desk jockey that makes pretty charts and ridiculous, baseless extrapolations from them.

[TMWNN]

Zeihan's been predicting for a decade that Russia's collapsing demographics would force it to quickly act (before it can no longer do so) to expand its borders/security zone. It's tough to call the Ukraine invasion anything else.

[vkou]

Looking at Chechnya, the Georgian-Ossettian-Russian war, and observing that the entirety of Eastern Europe lurched into camp West around that time period, you don't have to be Nostradamus to imagine that Russia's desire to keep as much of the Soviet empire with it as possible will manifest sooner or later.

Which has nothing to do with its demographics, and everything to do with its politics.

... Also, Ukraine is facing the exact same demographic stresses as Russia. Also, demographics don't matter as much as, broadly speaking, industrial capacity in modern wars. They aren't about throwing an entire generation of men into million-casualty-offensives over no-man's-land.

[pphysch]

If you think Russia invaded Ukraine primarily because of "demographic issues" i.e. territorial expansion for resources, I have a bridge to sell you.

[fleddr]

Fully agree. Zeihan takes a singular issue, and then projects it far into the future under the ridiculous presumption that absolutely nothing else will ever change.

Already right now, half our economy is made-up, bullshit jobs to produce bullshit items, keeping each other busy on the back of monetary stimulation.