[cik2e]

I think Cold War 2 has already begun. I just don't see how the pre-invasion state of affairs could be restored in any realistic scenario. To hit the undo button Putin would have to stop the invasion, profusely apologize, pay reparations and make other concessions like returning Crimea. And of course he will do nothing of the sort. There's no scenario that I see under which which Putin is still running Russia and it stops being an international pariah.

[jacquesm]

Cold War 2 began in the 90's. It just isn't as public as Cold War 1.

[birdyrooster]

Not sure why you are being voted down. I think it's clear that Russia's invasion of Chechnya triggered NATO to join a bunch of ex-warsaw pact countries. That was a further escalation which then caused Putin to feel excused to invade Georgia and Ukraine.

[bilbo0s]

Just my own prediction, but I suspect even after Putin is gone, the position of the Russian state vis-a-vis its buffer zones will remain unchanged.

I've seen this before on smaller scales in Iraq, and Afghanistan. We take out the leaders, but the perceived grievances remain unchanged. In fact I was a bit surprised because I thought that, at a minimum, the grievance would change to "you killed our leader". It didn't happen that way at all.

I bet the same thing happens in Russia. I honestly hope that our policymakers have more of a plan B in place than they have had with other conflicts. Just in case this turns out to be a concern that drives a leader and not a leader that drives a concern. Because though I'm sure we all would've lost friends or family in either case, at least there would have been a chance in hell of victory against the latter.