Then why did Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan see the same drops in crime? They all lock up a minuscule fraction of their populations by comparison and had larger or similar drops in crime.
The timing is also wrong, the drop in crime started before incarceration ramped up.
Also as I mentioned the plurality of incarceration is for nonviolent crime, a lot of which is simple drug possession.
The Nordic countries[1] all peak around '86-'92. Homicide is down world-wide since 1990[2]. This is a weird argument to make. I've never even encountered anyone who disagreed with this who has even a passing familiarity with criminology, economics, or broad societal trends.
I'm not even sure what you're actually arguing here. You're coming across like a contrarian who is frantically googling for a counter point.
Crime in Germany peaked in 1992[3].
Italy 1991 [4]
Canada also 1991 [5]
The problem is there is no evidence for any crime boom unless you pick the right location and the right beginning year (typically the post war years) or some such contrieved scenario. Even the graph in your second link shows it was completely insignificant.
The whole discussion is about the post war period. But if you look back further, homicide rates where higher. Again I’m not aware of any scholar, police organization, or or anyone really who disputes this. What even are you arguing here?
The Norway peak in 2011 is entirely from the Utøya mass homicide.
Japan follows a similar curve despite starting and peaking later, 70% of those crimes for the whole period are nonviolent petty thefts. My mistake in including Japan doesn’t support either point your tried to make. Neither place has mass incarceration.
The timing is also wrong, the drop in crime started before incarceration ramped up.
Also as I mentioned the plurality of incarceration is for nonviolent crime, a lot of which is simple drug possession.